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Pay Off Mortgage or Invest? Every Calculator Is Lying

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Every financial calculator claims that paying off your mortgage early and investing in the market result in the exact same wealth over time. You have likely heard that paying down debt is a guaranteed return, while investing captures long-term growth. But following this standard advice could be costing you a fortune in hidden interest. Take Jake and Marcus. They earn the same salary, live on the same street, and carry identical 30-year mortgages with $2,329 monthly payments. Both men have an extra $500 each month, but they take opposite paths. Jake funnels his cash into his mortgage principal, while Marcus directs every dollar into a low-cost index fund. The calculators show them finishing in a perfect tie. Yet, when you run their lives through 50,000 different market scenarios, that tie disappears. Why does one man end up ahead in nearly two-thirds of those lives? The answer isn't in the math; it is in what the math ignores. What you find is not the result you were promised.

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